Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh May Influence Polls: India Votes

Voters in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, home to about a third of India’s total parliamentary seats, may decide who forms the government in the world’s biggest democracy.

The performance of regional parties that dominate these states will be crucial as polls predict the coalition led by the ruling Congress party and the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party will fall short of a majority.

The northern state of Uttar Pradesh, which sends the highest number of lawmakers to parliament, is dominated by the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party, whose support base consists mainly of the underprivileged sections.

The Congress party has lost support in Uttar Pradesh and hasn’t ruled the country’s most populous state since 1989.

Voters in Uttar Pradesh, home to 166 million people and one of the poorest states in the nation, have elected candidates whose support is limited to the communities they belong to.

The Congress party won nine seats in the 2004 national elections, while the BJP got 10 seats out of a total 80. The BSP, which won the 2007 state assembly elections, is seeking to improve its 2004 election tally of 19.

Chief Minister Mayawati of the BSP has allied with the Third Front, a grouping that includes regional and communist parties, that projects itself as an alternative to the two main coalitions. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party won 35 seats in the last elections.

One-Sided Results

The southern states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have previously yielded one-sided results.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi led its local allies in 2004 by winning 16 of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. J. Jayalalitha’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the other key party in the state, didn’t get any seats in the 2004 elections.

The DMK is part of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance, while the Third Front says it has the AIADMK’s backing.

In Andhra Pradesh, the contest is between the Congress and the opposition Telugu Desam Party. The Congress won 29 of 42 seats in the 2004 elections, while the Telugu Desam won five. The Telugu-language film star Chiranjeevi, who floated a new party, Praja Rajyam, is seeking to make inroads into the votes of the two main parties in the state.

Following is a table of some other key states that may influence the poll verdict:

State Seats Main Parties Last Elections

Bihar 40 Rashtriya Janata Dal, RJD: 22

Lok Janashakti Party, JD(U): 6

Janata Dal (United)

Gujarat 26 BJP and Congress BJP: 14

Congress: 12

Madhya 29 Congress and BJP Congress: 4 Pradesh BJP: 25

Maharashtra 48 BJP, Congress, Congress: 13

Shiv Sena and Nationalist BJP: 13

Congress Party NCP: 9

Shiv Sena: 12

Orissa 21 Congress, BJP and Congress: 2

Biju Janata Dal BJP: 7

BJD: 11

Rajasthan 25 Congress and BJP Congress: 4

BJP: 21

West Bengal 42 Communist parties, Communists:

Congress and Trinamool 35

Congress Congress: 6

Trinamool: 1

Poll Schedule:

The remaining rounds of voting will be held on April 30, May 7 and May 13. The voting is staggered to enable security forces to spread out across the country to secure ballot stations. Counting of votes will take place in all constituencies on May 16.

Opinion Polls:

The elections will probably result in a fragmented verdict with no existing political alliance able to form a government, a poll by Star News-Nielsen said before the voting began on April 16. The Congress party-led ruling coalition may win 203 of the 543 seats being contested to 191 for the opposition alliance headed by the BJP, it said.

A survey in India Today magazine in the first week of April showed the United Progressive Alliance, headed by the Congress, may win 190 to 199 seats, while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance may get between 172 and 181 seats.

On March 22, an opinion poll by Star News and AC Nielsen Co. said the UPA would win 257 seats, short of the 272 needed for a majority. The NDA would have 184 lawmakers in the new parliament.

Economy:

India’s $1.2 trillion economy expanded 5.3 percent in the three months to Dec. 31 from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2003, after a 7.6 percent gain in the previous quarter as the worst global recession since World War II lowered output and demand for Indian goods overseas.

Declining overseas orders and shrinking local demand may make it difficult for India to achieve its 7.1 percent growth estimate for the year that ended March 31, according to Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the prime minister’s top economic adviser. The current estimate would be the slowest pace of expansion since the 12 months to March 2003.

Prime Minister Singh’s government has announced three fiscal stimulus packages.