Clear signs of unravelling of poll eve alliances. Turnout hardly an indicator of voting pattern in Andhra

Political parties may be putting ideological gloss over their current positioning, but such posturing will not last beyond May 16. Quite naturally, the “fronts” that were formed on the poll eve are expected to disintegrate with its components driving hard bargains with the party that is best placed to form the government.

There were clear signs of the unravelling of poll eve alliances last week itself when TRS said that it will open channels of communication with both Congress and BJP. TRS, in its talks with Congress leaders, has already expressed its willingness to dump TDP. Congress, which fared poorly in the Telangana region, may not be in a position to form the government on its own in Andhra Pradesh.

The cowbelt partners of Congress, which have become the main tormentors of the ruling party, too, are not expected to stay as one cohesive unit. SP has already made it clear that it would extract its pound of flesh for supporting the next government. Unlike RJD, SP is likely to emerge as a significant post-poll player.

That Congress cannot expect to do business with SP on terms favourable to it is clear from the statements of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mr Amar Singh. The deal between the two, if it happens, will be dictated purely by self-interest, as is evident from the way SP has been targeting the prime minister. Reacting to the prime minister
’s brazen defence of Italian middleman Ottavio Quattarocchi, Mr Amar Singh said no leader of the country has brought such shame on the country.

In the event of Congress bettering its vote-share in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the cow belt parties are certain to persist with an antagonistic line while striking an alliance with it. There is acknowledgement in the “fourth front” that the revival of Congress in the Hindi heartland could only be at their cost.

The silver lining for Congress is the intense competition among the leaders of the “secular” parties. Notwithstanding public claims of some of the leaders that they are willing to back Mr Sharad Pawar for the top post, there are clear signs to suggest that the “secular’ parties themselves would thwart any such move on the part of NCP. In any case, Mr Pawar’s party is not expected to get more than two dozen Lok Sabha seats.

But Congress appears to be hoping that the TINA factor will work in its favour after the elections. Although this assessment is true to some extent, past movements of political parties suggest that the pull of secularlism has lost much of its potency. Parties like AIADMK are not known to carry any ideological baggage and would be willing to join any non-DMK front.

Congress could get considerable elbowroom if the Left under-performs in the election. The Left, which is expected to lose heavily in Kerala and West Bengal, can bank only on TDP and BJD to support its political line. Even this picture could change if BJD requires the support of BJP for forming the next government in Orissa. Given this context, much will depend on the numbers that both the Congress and the BJP win in the polls. With polls in Andhra Pradesh over nearly ten days ago, if you thought that the only wait is for the results on May 16, then think
again. Apprehending a photo finish in many assembly constituencies due to three-cornered contests, candidates of all hues are desperately attempting to “buy” postal ballots with offers of reward in cash and kind.

There are more than three lakh postal ballots in the state. Defence personnel, securitymen on poll duty, teachers, drivers and all those enlisted for election duty are eligible to vote through postal ballots.

While April 22 was the last date for requisitioning the postal ballots from the Election Commission, all such completed postal ballots will be accepted by the commission till 8 am on May 16, the day of the counting. And with the prospects of a hung house and close contests in many constituencies looming large, a desperate race is on among candidates to bag the postal ballots.

According to sources, the frenzy for pocketing the postal ballots is the maximum in Rayalaseema, where the big three chief ministerial contenders, Congress CM Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu and Prajarajyam president Chiranjeevi are in the fray. In Kadapa district alone, 19,522 postal ballots have been issued. Of these, 10,371 ballots have been issued to government employees drafted for the election duty while there are 846 service voters in the 10 assembly segments in the CM’s native district.

In Kadapa and Anantapur, the price tag for each postal ballot is between Rs 2,000 and Rs 2,500. A minister contesting from an assembly constituency is allegedly offering as much as Rs 5,000 per postal ballot. “Every vote counts. In 2004, a TDP candidate lost by less than 150 votes,” said a candidate from Anantapur district. But rewards in kind are also playing as equally important role as cash. “Many voters possessing a postal ballot are being lured with promise of transfers,” said one teacher, who confessed that he gave away his postal ballot to a candidate on the promise of being transferred to his favourite place.

What is adding to the race is the fact that unlike the regular vote, where there is no guarantee of a voter keeping his promise after accepting rewards, the postal ballot is a sure shot. “Once a voter agrees to vote for a certain consideration, he marks the ballot in my presence and hands it over to me. We then deposit it in the drop boxes kept in the office of each returning officer or mail it directly to the EC. In postal balloting, we are assured of the promised vote,” said a candidate. Turnout in elections is hardly an indicator of the voting pattern in Andhra Pradesh. Voter turnout in the state has remained more or less the same since the 1994 elections, though the outcome of the polls has been quite different.In the 1994 elections, the voter turnout was 71.02 per cent and the opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) registered a landslide victory over the ruling Congress party.

The percentage of polling stood at 69.15 in the 1999 elections. Nevertheless, TDP retained power in the state, though with a reduced majority.

In the 2004 elections, the voter turnout was 69.95 per cent. This time, however, the opposition Congress regained power trouncing the ruling TDP. The Congress and its allies won 36 of the 42 Lok Sabha and 234 of the 284 Assembly seats while the TDP’s tally was reduced to 5 Lok Sabha and 46 Assembly seats.

In the current simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and Assembly in the state, the polling percentage declined slightly to 67.44. However, it is anybody’s guess what the voters’ mood was.

In the first phase of polls held on April 16, the average voter turnout was 64.98 per cent. The maximum percentage (75 per cent) of polling was in the Medak parliamentary constituency where Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) leader and actress Vijaya Shanti is in the fray. The least voter turnout (54 per cent) was in the Hyderabad Lok Sabha segment where Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen is trying to retain the seat.

The first phase covered 154 assembly and 22 Lok Sabha constituencies spread over Telangana and north coastal Andhra.

In the second phase held on April 23, the percentage of polling stood at 69.9. The highest voter turnout in the state was in the Narsapuram Lok Sabha segment (77 per cent). With regard to Assembly polls, the highest voter turnout of 82.7 per cent was in Kuppam where TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu is in the fray.

The second phase covered 140 Assembly and 20 Lok Sabha constituencies in south coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. The entry of Praja Rajyam Party, floated by actor-turned-politician Chiranjeevi, into the electoral fray has changed the political equations in the second phase.

A keen triangular contest was witnessed between the PRP, TDP and the Congress in south coastal Andhra, the native of Chiranjeevi. Perhaps, this could be a reason for a higher voter turnout in the second phase compared with the first phase.

Irrespective of the percentage of polling, all the three major contestants for power in the state (Congress, TDP and PRP) are claiming that they are going to form the next government.

On the other hand, political observers predict a hung Assembly. Who is correct will be known only on May 16.